Friday, September 14, 2012

Greatness Equation Potential Adjustment

So, I've been tinkering with my Greatness Equation a bit over the last couple days, after a discussion with a friend of mine. Basically, it revolved around the placement of Shawn Kemp. The way things stood, Kemp was ranked 91st with a rating of 172.7. That's pretty damn respectable, but it really doesn't accurately reflect how truly dominant the Reign Man was from about 1993-1997. Now, the biggest flaw with the equation has always been that it only measures a player's entire career, and can't gauge a player's peak or how long that peak lasted. So, I made a slight tweak that hopefully addresses that.
Basically, I increased the value of each subsequent All-Star and All-NBA selection a player earned. You can think of it as "bonus points" if that makes it easier. So, a player's first All-Star selection is still worth 5 points, but then his second All-Star selection is worth 6 (5 plus 1 bonus point), his third is worth 7 (5 plus 2 bonus points), and so on. And I decided to cap it out at 10 selections, just because by that point I'm rewarding players for longevity rather than an extended peak. So, essentially, a player who makes 10 All-Star games gets 45 bonus points. (The eleventh All-Star selection still earns a player the standard 5 points.)

The All-NBA selections work basically the same way, except that first and second team selections both count towards a player's cumulative total of All-NBA selections. (I didn't include All-NBA third teams in that total because that award started to recently and would skew results towards modern players.) And instead of one bonus point for each selection, All-NBA team selections are worth two. For example, let's say a player has never made an All-NBA team before and he makes the second team in 2013, then a first team in 2014, then a second team again in 2015. He'd end up getting 10 points for 2013, 17 points for 2014 (15 for the first team and 2 bonus points), and 14 for 2015 (10 points for the second team and 4 bonus points). As with the All-Star teams, I capped it at ten selections.

Here's how the top 100 looks with this modification and how it looked before. (I tried to put them side by side, but couldn't get it to format correctly):


Before:
1.Michael Jordan 934.5
2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 932.0
3. Bill Russell 739.6
4. Magic Johnson 714.0
5. Wilt Chamberlain 712.6
6. Kobe Bryant 702.8
7. Tim Duncan 688.6
8. Shaquille O'Neal 684.7
9. Larry Bird 654.9
10. Karl Malone 651.8
11. Jerry West 584.6
12. Oscar Robertson 511.2
13. Hakeem Olajuwon 505.1
14. LeBron James 500.6
15. John Havlicek 479.1
16. Kevin Garnett 475.9
17. Bob Pettit 468.2
18. Moses Malone 457.2
19. David Robinson 450.0
20. Charles Barkley 449.9
21. Dirk Nowitzki 448.5
22. Julius Erving 437.6
23. Dolph Schayes 431.8
24. Elgin Baylor 416.2
25. Scottie Pippen 411.5
26. Bob Cousy 406.2
27. John Stockton 392.3
28. George Mikan 379.5
29. Jason Kidd 334.9
30. Gary Payton 324.1
31. Elvin Hayes 322.1
32. Walt Frazier 321.8
33. Patrick Ewing 320.3
34. Dwyane Wade 312.8
35. Steve Nash 312.0
36. Rick Barry 309.9
37. Clyde Drexler 307.3
38. Isiah Thomas 284.1
39. Sam Jones 283.0
40. Allen Iverson 281.7
41. Robert Parish 278.9
42. Bill Sharman 278.7
43. George Gervin 277.5
44. Kevin McHale 267.7
45. Paul Arizin 258.2
46. Chauncey Billups 253.9
47. Hal Greer 251.9
48. Ray Allen 251.2
49. Dwight Howard 251.1
50. Reggie Miller 244.7
51. Paul Pierce 244.7
52. Dave Cowens 239.8
53. Dominique Wilkins 238.7
54. Pau Gasol 234.9
55. Willis Reed 234.5
56. Vern Mikkelsen 225.4
57. James Worthy 225.2
58. Wes Unseld 221.6
59. Jerry Lucas 221.6
60. Tom Heinsohn 217.8
61. Tracy McGrady 213.7
62. Dennis Johnson 213.2
63. Neil Johnston 209.8
64. Ben Wallace 209.7
65. Artis Gilmore 208.1
66. Adrian Dantley 207.5
67. Tiny Archibald 206.0
68. Grant Hill 205.8
69. Ed Macauley 204.7
70. Bailey Howell 200.7
71. Bob McAdoo 197.5
72. Sidney Moncrief 195.9
73. Chet Walker 190.4
74. Manu Ginobili 189.0
75. Dikembe Mutombo 187.1
76. Alonzo Mourning 186.4
77. Bill Laimbeer 185.4
78. Rasheed Wallace 184.6
79. Joe Dumars 184.2
80. Chris Paul 183.7
81. Dennis Rodman 182.8
82. Cliff Hagan 181.0
83. Alex English 180.9
84. Jack Sikma 180.9
85. Slater Martin 178.8
86. Amare Stoudemire 177.9
87. Chris Webber 177.6
88. Bob Dandridge 176.4
89. Bob Lanier 174.5
90. Kevin Durant 173.4
91. Shawn Kemp 172.7
92. Tim Hardaway 167.7
93. Paul Westphal 167.6
94. Kevin Johnson 166.9
95. Billy Cunningham 166.6
96. Buck Williams 164.7
97. Maurice Cheeks 163.8
98. Horace Grant 160.4
99. Chris Mullin 160.3
100. Larry Foust 160.1

After: (change from before in parentheses)

1. (0) Michael Jordan 1,069.5
2. (0) Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1,067.0
3. (0) Bill Russell 874.6
4. (0) Magic Johnson 849.0
5. (0) Wilt Chamberlain 847.6
6. (0) Kobe Bryant 837.8
7. (0) Tim Duncan 823.6
8. (0) Shaquille O'Neal 819.7
9. (0) Larry Bird 789.9
10. (0) Karl Malone 786.8
11. (0) Jerry West 719.6
12. (0) Oscar Robertson 646.2
13. (0) Hakeem Olajuwon 622.1
14. (+1) John Havlicek 614.1
15. (+2) Bob Pettit 603.2
16. (+4) Charles Barkley 584.9
17. (-3) LeBron James 584.6
18. (+5) Dolph Schayes 566.8
19. (+2) Dirk Nowitzki 565.5
20. (-4) Kevin Garnett 562.9
21. (-3) Moses Malone 558.2
22. (+2) Elgin Baylor 551.2
23. (+3) Bob Cousy 541.2
24. (-5) David Robinson 525.0
25. (-3) Julius Erving 524.6
26. (+1) John Stockton 493.3
27. (-2) Scottie Pippen 452.5
28. (0) George Mikan 415.5
29. (0) Jason Kidd 409.9
30. (+3) Patrick Ewing 407.3
31. (-1) Gary Payton 402.1
32. (-1) Elvin Hayes 397.1
33. (-1) Walt Frazier 372.8
34. (+2) Rick Barry 367.9
35. (-1) Dwyane Wade 360.8
36. (-1) Steve Nash 360.0
37. (0) Clyde Drexler 358.3
38. (+2) Allen Iverson 356.7
39. (+4) George Gervin 355.5
40. (-2) Isiah Thomas 349.1
41. (+1) Bill Sharman 348.7
42. (+5) Hal Greer 338.9
43. (+1) Paul Arizin 315.2
44. (-3) Robert Parish 314.9
45. (-6) Sam Jones 299.0
46. (+2) Ray Allen 296.2
47. (+6) Dominique Wilkins 294.7
48. (+3) Paul Pierce 289.7
49. (-5) Kevin McHale 288.7
50. (-1) Dwight Howard 286.1
51. (+4) Willis Reed 275.5
52. (0) Dave Cowens 266.8
53. (-7) Chauncey Billups 263.9
54. (+5) Jerry Lucas 262.6
55. (-5) Reggie Miller 254.7
56. (+5) Tracy McGrady 254.7
57. (-1) Vern Mikkelsen 252.4
58. (+10) Grant Hill 246.8
59. (-2) James Worthy 246.2
60. (0) Tom Heinsohn 244.8
61. (+2) Neil Johnston 244.8
62. (+5) Tiny Archibald 241.0
63. (-9) Pau Gasol 240.9
64. (+5) Ed Macauley 237.7
65. (-7) Wes Unseld 231.6
66. (+6) Sidney Moncrief 225.9
67. (-5) Dennis Johnson 225.2
68. (-2) Adrian Dantley 224.5
69. (-4) Artis Gilmore 223.1
70. (-6) Ben Wallace 221.7
71. (+14) Slater Martin 219.8
72. (-2) Bailey Howell 215.7
73. (+2) Dikembe Mutombo 215.1
74. (+9) Alex English 214.9
75. (+11) Amare Stoudemire 212.9
76. (-3) Chet Walker 211.4
77. (-6) Bob McAdoo 209.5
78. (-2) Alonzo Mourning 209.4
79. (+10) Bob Lanier 202.5
80. (+4) Jack Sikma 201.9
81. (-1) Chris Paul 199.7
82. (+5) Chris Webber 199.6
83. (+4) Joe Dumars 199.2
84. (+22) Lenny Wilkens 194.8
85. (+6) Shawn Kemp 193.7
86. (-4) Cliff Hagan 193.0
87. (-10) Bill Laimbeer 191.4
88. (-10) Rasheed Wallace 190.6
89. (+11) Larry Foust 190.1
90. (-16) Manu Ginobili 190.0
91. (+1) Tim Hardaway 189.7
92. (+1) Paul Westphal 189.6
93. (+8) Vince Carter 187.7
94. (+1) Billy Cunningham 184.6
95. (-14) Dennis Rodman 183.8
96. (-6) Kevin Durant 182.4
97. (-9) Bob Dandridge 182.4
98. (+5) Harry Gallatin 182.0
99. (-5) Kevin Johnson 181.9
100. (+10) Dave Bing 180.5

And here's how the others from the previous top ten look now:
102. (-2) Chris Mullin 176.3
106. (-8) Maurice Cheeks 169.8
109. (-12) Buck Williams 167.7
120. (-22) Horace Grant 160.4

So, you can probably tell, this de-emphasizes playoff and team success and increases the importance of individual and regular season success. Thoughts?

3 comments:

  1. Looks pretty good, but how the hell does Kevin McHale almost out of top 50? And how about Amare Stoudamire, top 75? It seems to work in most cases but fails with a few players (and seems to overrate Lenny Wilkins....22 spots in alot.). With the exception of those players I listed, I actually think this is an upgrade from the previous formula.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Lenny Wilkens ended up making 9 All-Star teams (which is kind of shocking in itself), so that earned him 36 bonus points. And that makes a huge difference when you drop below the original 200 point threshold since everyone is so closely clustered together. Stoudemire made 1 All-NBA first team and 4 second teams (even more shocking) for 20 bonus points and 15 points for his 6 All-Star selections. And perhaps most shocking of all, McHale made only 1 All-NBA team (a first team in 1987) so no bonus points there, and 21 bonus points for his 7 All-Star selections.

    But I agree that those 3 are not accurate reflections of the players. Slater Martin moving up 14 spots also seems a little much, but as always, it's a work in progress.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Yup, it's a work in progress, but it's definitely getting there, I think that overall the good moves outweigh the bad.

    ReplyDelete