2013 NBA Season Preview/Predictions

So, I know the season started yesterday, but I had wisdom teeth pulled, and was actually in a drug induced sleepy haze most of the afternoon/evening so I didn't get a chance to put this up. But, as always, here's a few predictions for what I'm expecting to happen this year.

It's finally happening!

According to this story, the NBA is adopting a new approach toward All-Star game voting. Instead of voting for 2 guards, 2 forwards, and 2 centers, people will now vote for 2 guards and 3 "front court players." This solves the Duncan/Garnett/Nowitzki problem that plagued the voting process for somewhere between five and eight years in the '00s, where all three probably deserved to start but couldn't because they were all forwards. (Of course, they were also in the same conference as Yao and Shaq for most of those years, so there's really no telling who would've gotten in using this process in the past.) It also potentially helps a lot with the Zydrunas Ilgauskas/Brad Miller/Jamaal Magloire problem from 2003-2005, where  someone had to be the backup center. That was somewhat mitigated when they started letting coaches vote for players regardless of position, but it would still free up a spot if a guy of that caliber was the best center in a given conference.

Greatness Equation Potential Adjustment

So, I've been tinkering with my Greatness Equation a bit over the last couple days, after a discussion with a friend of mine. Basically, it revolved around the placement of Shawn Kemp. The way things stood, Kemp was ranked 91st with a rating of 172.7. That's pretty damn respectable, but it really doesn't accurately reflect how truly dominant the Reign Man was from about 1993-1997. Now, the biggest flaw with the equation has always been that it only measures a player's entire career, and can't gauge a player's peak or how long that peak lasted. So, I made a slight tweak that hopefully addresses that.

The New Orleans...

This is going to be very brief and mostly just a follow up to my previous post about changing NBA nicknames. But I think I've got a good one for New Orleans - the New Orleans Bon Temps. It's French for "Good Times." Intimidating? No. But it fits that city/culture like a glove. (And it's not like the Orlando "Magic" is exactly putting the fear of God into anyone by reminding other teams they share a city with Disney World.) Plus, I could really see the people of New Orleans, and casual fans in general, rallying around the phrase, "Laissez le Bon Temps rouler!" (Let the good times roll!) Who wouldn't want to yell that? Or buy a shirt with that written on it? I think that's what I'm going to call them from now on. Someone pass this along to Tom Benson, please.

Shuffling NBA Nicknames

I know I'm behind the curve on this, but, courtesy of Paul Lukas's always entertaining "Uni Watch," I just read that the New Orleans Hornets new owner, Tom Benson (also the owner of the New Orleans Saints) wants to change the team's name to reflect something more New Orleans-esque. So what should it be?

Fixing the draft lottery and tanking

I'm about to propose a radical idea that would both improve the NBA's draft, discourage tanking, and be insanely fun to watch. Now, of course, this will never happen in a million years, but hey, it never hurts to throw it out there.

Assessing the Hall of Fame chances of current players

First off, I just want to get the news out that my first child, Liliana Grace Miller, is due December 13, 2012. I couldn't be more excited. The fact that I get to introduce her to a revitalized Lakers lineup this season only sweetens the deal. I was checking the schedule, and saw that the Lakers are playing the Knicks on Christmas Day this year - which is really the biggest, marquee matchup after her due date, and someone tried to tell me that game is going to feature at least seven Hall of Famers. (Bryant, Gasol, Howard, and Nash for LA, Anthony, Kidd, and Stoudemire for NY). I was a little skeptical about this claim, so I thought I'd take a look at how likely it is those guys, and the other guys who are still playing who are most likely to make it in.

The List of Greatness (Complete)

For your perusing pleasure during what should be a very interesting and entertaining draft: the complete List of Greatness. (I'll update the sidebar shortly, I just don't have time to link everything right now.) I did make a slight change to the "Supplementary Members" list. It was getting a little crowded, so I changed it to any player who's in the top five for five years makes the supplementary list.

1956 - Inaugural Class (10 Inductees)

George Mikan - 380.0

Dolph Schayes - 253.5

Vern Mikkelsen - 181.9

Ed Macauley - 175.4

Neil Johnston - 162.3

Jim Pollard - 154.2

Bob Cousy - 153.1

Bobby Wanzer - 150.7

Harry Gallatin - 138.5

1957

1. Paul Arizin - 164.1

2. Bill Sharman - 147.9

3. Slater Martin - 143.7

4. Max Zaslofsky - 134.9

5. Larry Foust - 127.2

1958

1. Bill Sharman - 184.8

2. Bob Pettit - 170.2

3. Slater Martin - 160.1

4. Larry Foust - 143.1

5. Max Zaslofsky - 134.9

1959

1. Bob Pettit - 226.9

2. Slater Martin - 177.8

3. Larry Foust - 151.8

4. Max Zaslofsky - 134.9

5. George Yardley - 131.1

1960

1. Bill Russell - 199.2

2. Slater Martin - 178.9

3. Larry Foust - 152.8

4. George Yardley - 145.1

5. Max Zaslofsky - 134.9

1961

1. Slater Martin - 178.9

2. Larry Foust - 156.9

3. George Yardley - 145.1

4. Cliff Hagan - 137.2

5. Max Zaslofsky - 134.9

1962

1. Elgin Baylor - 173.6

2. Wilt Chamberlain - 164.3

3. Larry Foust - 160.1

4. Cliff Hagan - 150.7

5. George Yardley - 145.1

1963

1. Wilt Chamberlain - 200.6

2. Tom Heinsohn - 177.8

3. Larry Foust - 160.1

4. Cliff Hagan - 159.4

5. George Yardley - 145.1

1964

1. Tom Heinsohn - 208.0

2. Oscar Robertson - 199.5

3. Cliff Hagan - 167.4

4. Larry Foust - 160.1

5. George Yardley - 145.1

1965

1. Oscar Robertson - 241.8

2. Jerry West - 192.0

3. Sam Jones - 179.4

4. Cliff Hagan - 172.1

5. Larry Foust - 160.1

1966

1. Jerry West - 250.3

2. Sam Jones - 227.0

3. Cliff Hagan - 177.2

4. Larry Foust - 160.1

5. George Yardley - 145.1

1967

1. Sam Jones - 247.5

2. Cliff Hagan - 177.2

3. Hal Greer - 176.6

4. Larry Foust - 160.1

5. George Yardley - 145.1

1968

1. Hal Greer - 207.1

2. Cliff Hagan - 182.0

3. Bailey Howell - 165.2

4. Larry Foust - 160.1

5. George Yardley - 145.1

1969

1. John Havlicek - 194.3

2. Bailey Howell - 192.5

3. Cliff Hagan - 183.3

4. Larry Foust - 160.1

5. Jerry Lucas - 154.0

1970

1. Bailey Howell - 195.6

2. Willis Reed - 186.1

3. Cliff Hagan - 183.3

4. Jerry Lucas - 161.9

5. Larry Foust - 160.1

1971

1. Willis Reed - 217.0

2. Cliff Hagan - 183.3

3. Jerry Lucas - 177.4

4. Larry Foust - 160.1

5. George Yardley - 145.1

1972

1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - 211.7

2. Jerry Lucas - 200.6

3. Cliff Hagan - 183.3

4. Walt Frazier - 173.0

5. Larry Foust - 160.1

1973

1. Walt Frazier - 232.1

2. Jerry Lucas - 218.4

3. Cliff Hagan - 183.3

4. Billy Cunningham - 167.5

5. Larry Foust - 160.1

1974

1. Jerry Lucas - 221.6

2. Rick Barry - 184.0

3. Cliff Hagan - 183.3

4. Chet Walker - 175.3

5. Billy Cunningham - 168.9

1975

1. Rick Barry - 254.3

2. Chet Walker - 190.4

3. Cliff Hagan - 183.3

4. Billy Cunningham - 175.0

5. Larry Foust - 160.1

1976

1. Dave Cowens - 201.8

2. Chet Walker - 190.4

3. Cliff Hagan - 183.3

4. Elvin Hayes - 178.5

5. Billy Cunningham - 176.3

1977

1. Elvin Hayes - 211.1

2. Chet Walker - 190.4

3. Cliff Hagan - 183.3

4. Billy Cunningham - 176.3

5. Julius Erving - 171.8

1978

1. Julius Erving - 204.2

2. Chet Walker - 190.4

3. Wes Unseld - 188.1

4. Cliff Hagan - 183.3

5. Billy Cunningham - 176.3

1979

1. Wes Unseld - 207.8

2. Chet Walker - 190.4

3. Cliff Hagan - 183.3

4. Billy Cunningham - 176.3

5. Bob Dandridge - 174.1

1980

1. Chet Walker - 190.4

2. Cliff Hagan - 183.3

3. Billy Cunningham - 176.3

4. Bob Dandridge - 175.8

5. George Gervin - 166.7

1981

1. George Gervin - 200.2

2. Tiny Archibald - 190.3

3. Cliff Hagan - 183.3

4. Bob Dandridge - 176.4

5. Billy Cunningham - 176.3

1982

1. Moses Malone - 209.6

2. Tiny Archibald - 201.7

3. Artis Gilmore - 191.7

4. Cliff Hagan - 183.3

5. Bob McAdoo - 176.6

1983

1. Artis Gilmore - 212.1

2. Larry Bird - 211.9

3. Tiny Archibald - 204.6

4. Cliff Hagan - 183.3

5. Bob McAdoo - 181.6

1984

1. Larry Bird - 314.0

2. Magic Johnson - 218.8

3. Tiny Archibald - 206.0

4. Bob McAdoo - 188.8

5. Cliff Hagan - 183.3

1985

1. Magic Johnson - 289.9

2. Tiny Archibald - 206.0

3. Bob McAdoo - 196.7

4. Cliff Hagan - 183.3

5. Dan Issel - 181.2

1986

1. Tiny Archibald - 206.0

2. Bob McAdoo - 197.5

3. Robert Parish - 183.3

4. Cliff Hagan - 183.3

5. Dennis Johnson - 182.8

1987

1. Robert Parish - 208.1

2. Dennis Johnson - 198.0

3. Bob McAdoo - 197.5

4. Kevin McHale - 193.5

5. Sidney Moncrief - 185.5

1988

1. Kevin McHale - 216.9

2. Dennis Johnson - 207.0

3. Bob McAdoo - 197.5

4. Adrian Dantley - 197.1

5. Sidney Moncrief - 189.2

1989

1. Michael Jordan - 220.9

2. Isiah Thomas - 211.9

3. Dennis Johnson - 209.5

4. Adrian Dantley - 204.5

5. Bob McAdoo - 197.5

1990

1. Isiah Thomas - 254.6

2. Dennis Johnson - 213.2

3. Adrian Dantley - 207.6

4. Charles Barkley - 199.8

5. Bob McAdoo - 197.5

1991

1. Charles Barkley - 238.9

2. James Worthy - 214.1

3. Dennis Johnson - 213.2

4. Adrian Dantley - 207.5

5. Hakeem Olajuwon - 202.9

1992

1. James Worthy - 222.2

2. Hakeem Olajuwon - 217.7

3. Dennis Johnson - 213.2

4. Karl Malone - 211.8

5. Adrian Dantley - 207.5

1993

1. Hakeem Olajuwon - 270.0

2. Karl Malone - 247.5

3. Clyde Drexler - 218.1

4. Dominique Wilkins - 217.9

5. Dennis Johnson - 213.2

1994

1. Karl Malone - 289.1

2. Patrick Ewing - 240.4

3. Dominique Wilkins - 231.3

4. Clyde Drexler - 229.9

5. John Stockton - 217.0

1995

1. Clyde Drexler - 271.7

2. Patrick Ewing - 260.5

3. John Stockton - 252.0

4. David Robinson - 251.8

5. Dominique Wilkins - 235.2

1996

1. David Robinson - 302.8

2. Scottie Pippen - 294.3

3. John Stockton - 285.8

4. Patrick Ewing - 272.3

5. Dominique Wilkins - 235.2

1997

1. Scottie Pippen - 345.5

2. John Stockton - 320.0

3. Patrick Ewing - 298.3

4. Dominique Wilkins - 238.6

5. Dennis Johnson - 213.2

1998

1. John Stockton - 339.1

2. Patrick Ewing - 301.3

3. Dominique Wilkins - 238.6

4. Dennis Johnson - 213.2

5. Adrian Dantley - 207.5

1999

1. Patrick Ewing - 309.6

2. Dominique Wilkins - 238.7

3. Dennis Johnson - 213.2

4. Adrian Dantley - 207.5

5. Bob McAdoo - 197.5

2000

1. Shaquille O'Neal - 307.4

2. Dominique Wilkins - 238.7

3. Gary Payton - 230.6

4. Dennis Johnson - 213.2

5. Adrian Dantley - 207.5

2001

1. Gary Payton - 246.4

2. Dominique Wilkins - 238.7

3. Dennis Johnson - 213.2

4. Reggie Miller - 208.4

5. Adrian Dantley - 207.5

2002

1. Tim Duncan - 259.4

2. Dominique Wilkins - 238.7

3. Reggie Miller - 217.9

4. Dennis Johnson - 213.2

5. Adrian Dantley - 207.5

2003

1. Dominique Wilkins - 238.7

2. Kobe Bryant - 235.9

3. Reggie Miller - 225.3

4. Jason Kidd - 214.3

5. Dennis Johnson - 213.2

2004

1. Kobe Bryant - 285.4

2. Kevin Garnett - 258.6

3. Jason Kidd - 241.9

4. Reggie Miller - 238.2

5. Dennis Johnson - 213.2

2005

1. Kevin Garnett - 290.0

2. Jason Kidd - 249.1

3. Reggie Miller - 244.7

4. Allen Iverson - 224.6

5. Dennis Johnson - 213.2

2006

1. Jason Kidd - 259.2

2. Reggie Miller - 244.7

3. Allen Iverson - 240.2

4. Dirk Nowitzki - 225.7

5. Dennis Johnson - 213.2

2007

1. Dirk Nowitzki - 284.0

2. Allen Iverson - 251.4

3. Reggie Miller - 244.7

4. Steve Nash - 229.3

5. Dennis Johnson - 213.2

2008

1. Allen Iverson - 268.0

2. Steve Nash - 255.2

3. Reggie Miller - 244.7

4. Dennis Johnson - 213.2

5. Adrian Dantley - 207.5

2009

1. Steve Nash - 262.5

2. LeBron James - 257.7

3. Reggie Miller - 244.7

4. Chauncey Billups - 229.6

5. Dennis Johnson - 213.2

2010

1. LeBron James - 320.7

2. Reggie Miller - 244.7

3. Chauncey Billups - 244.1

4. Ray Allen - 229.0

5. Dwyane Wade - 222.2

2011

1. Dwyane Wade - 269.0

2. Chauncey Billups - 252.2

3. Reggie Miller - 244.7

4. Ray Allen - 243.9

5. Paul Pierce - 228.5

2012

1. Chauncey Billups - 253.9

2. Dwight Howard - 251.1

3. Ray Allen - 248.7

4. Reggie Miller - 244.7

5. Paul Pierce - 240.5

Supplementary Members:

Max Zaslofsky

Larry Foust

George Yardley

Cliff Hagan

Billy Cunningham

Bob McAdoo

Dennis Johnson

Adrian Dantley

Reggie Miller

Thoughts on the NBA Finals and a note about this blog

Regardless of what happens from here on out, if Miami wins this series (and it sure looks like they will), LeBron will have earned this title. Really and truly in every sense of the word. He's playing some of the best basketball anyone has ever played in the playoffs. And not only that, he's doing it in a way that makes Dwyane Wade seem irrelevant. (Dwyane Wade isn't helping his own case night in and night out, but still...) Not to mention Bosh, Haslem, the Chalmers/Cole point guard amalgamation, and any other role players you want to mention. LeBron OWNS this team and he is owning these playoffs. Now, it's really no secret that I've never really liked LeBron. But it's hard not to watch in awe and just tip your cap and respect what the man is doing on the basketball court. And it's not like I never wanted him to win a title. I just didn't want to see him fall ass backwards into one on someone else's coattails and have everyone try to say that was just as good. I'm sure we can all think of plenty of examples of this happening... Mitch Richmond in 2002, Gary Payton in 2006, the plethora of former All-Stars on the 2011 Mavericks. (These are just off the top of my head.) Yeah, those guys are and forever will be known as NBA champions, but it wasn't done on their terms. LeBron winning a title as anything less than the absolute top dog would've been just like that. So yes, if he wins playing like this, I'm 100% behind it. It's just a shame he didn't do it while he was still in Cleveland. On a completely different note, you may have noticed a complete lack of posts from me lately. Unfortunately, due to family circumstances, I have had little to no time to write, and I can't see that changing in the foreseeable future. So, with a heavy heart, I must say that this blog is on an indefinite hiatus. There may be sporadic posts and I do fully intend to return to this full time one day. I just have no idea when it will be. (Even though I still have tons of ideas for projects I want to do.) After the finals are over, I will post the complete list of greatness, through this year. After that, I guess we'll just see how things play out. Thanks to everyone for reading and for all your support. It's really meant a lot to me. Thank you, thank you, thank you.

The List of Greatness - 1987

I think this is the first time this has ever happened - where the top ten guys stayed the same. Well, obviously Tiny Archibald isn't here anymore since he was inducted last year and was replaced by somebody else. So I should really say, everyone in the top ten who wasn't inducted last year was still in the top ten this year. There was some shifting of positions, but the names are all the same. Also, the new member of the top ten had an incredible season in 1987. Moved all the way from #82 to #4 and increased his rating by 72.9 points. That also might be a record for a single season.

2012 All-Stars

Well, I was 10 for 10 in predicting the All-Star starters. (My Rookie of the Year prediction, however, is not looking so great... To be fair, I did say I don't pay any attention to college basketball...) Although I really don't take a lot of pride in nailing every one of those picks - I'm pretty sure anyone who pays even a casual amount of attention to the NBA and saw the ballot could've predicted that. And that was really more of an exercise in knowing who was popular than good at basketball (at least this year, those two coincided, thankfully.) Now comes the fun part: figuring out the rest of the rosters.

The List of Greatness - 1986

I just realized it's been about three months since I've done one of these. Yikes. I have high hopes I'll get it brought current before the end of the season. (Assuming I don't take three months do the next one.) This year, we get to see the rare occurrence of a supplemental member jumping up to the regular list. (Slater Martin, Chet Walker, and Jerry Lucas are the only other ones to do that so far.)

Is Kobe Gunning for Kareem?

You know, I'd never even considered the possibility that Kobe Bryant could end his career as the all-time leading scorer in NBA history, but after he went for 48 points last night (something I didn't really think he could do anymore), I started to think that it might conceivably happen and started some crunching some numbers.

An Exercise in Egotism (My Pre-season-ish Award Picks)

The All-Star ballot was revealed today and voting opened - a full ten days into the season. But what are you gonna do when the All-Star Game is on the same date and the season started two months late? At least we're getting an All-Star Game this year.

Anyway, I was kind of waiting for the ballot to be revealed to make preseason picks, since I knew it wasn't going to be too far into the season. But I really didn't need to. I could've made these picks at the end of last year with 100% certainty.