Monday, December 19, 2011

One Last Thought on the Chris Paul Trade (and a couple other thoughts)

I've been developing this tool for a while now, which I originally intended to find a player's three year "peak" - the best three season stretch of a player's career. Incidentally, this can be used to identify the value of any three season stretch of a player's career. Of course, I've only been using this to evaluate (mostly) elite players and compare them to other elite players so far, so, it may need tweaking to accurately rate role players. But I think it works well for the greats right now. Anyway, I'm going to use this to analyze the value of the two Chris Paul trades, and see which one actually would be more beneficial for the Hornets.

First a little background. If you're not familiar with the formula (which you're probably not, cause I haven't done a lot with it yet), it takes into account win shares, MVP award shares, All-NBA selections, All-Star selections, playoff win shares, points per game, rebounds per game, and assists per game. It's designed for a player to top out at 300. Theoretically, it's possible for a player to achieve a score higher than 300, but as an example, here's what a player would have to do over a three year stretch to get exactly 300: 46.5 win shares, 2.400 MVP Award Shares (basically winning it three straight years), 3 All-NBA 1st Team Selections, 3 All-Star Selections, 3 Championships with 9.0 win shares in the playoffs over the three year stretch, all while averaging 30 PPG, 15 RPG, and 10 APG. So... it'd be pretty tough for a player to top that. It's never been done, but theoretically, it's possible.

Anyway, just so you can kind of see how everyone stacks up, here's the top 25. (There could be someone actually in the top 25 that I haven't checked yet, but I think I've tried most of the elite players and Hall of Famers already.)

1. Michael Jordan (1991-1993) - 294.2
2. Wilt Chamberlain (1966-1968) - 293.0
3. Larry Bird (1984-1986) - 285.3
4. Magic Johnson (1987-1989) - 281.3
5. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (1971-1973) - 271.1
6. Shaquille O'Neal (2000-2002) - 267.7
7. Bill Russell (1962-1964) - 260.3
8. LeBron James (2009-2011) - 256.1
9. Oscar Robertson (1962-1964) - 246.8
10. Tim Duncan (2001-2003) - 243.6
11. Kobe Bryant (2008-2010) - 238.1
12. David Robinson (1994-1996) - 228.8
13. Moses Malone (1981-1983) - 228.7
14. Steve Nash (2005-2007) - 227.6
15. Kevin Garnett (2003-2005) - 224.0
16. Karl Malone (1997-1999) - 222.8
17. Hakeem Olajuwon (1993-1995) - 218.2
18. Elgin Baylor (1961-1963) - 216.1
19. Bob Pettit (1959-1961) - 215.8
20. Jerry West (1970-1972) - 213.8
21. Dirk Nowitzki (2005-2007) - 210.7
22. George Mikan (1949-1951) - 210.2
23. Julius Erving (1974-1976) - 209.7
24. Charles Barkley (1991-1993) - 197.2
25. Bob McAdoo (1974-1976) - 195.2

Okay, so, you've got a pretty good grasp of the idea, right? Of course, using this, you can also check any three year span of a player's career. For example, Michael Jordan's rating from 1985-1987 is 157.0. His score from 1996-1998 is 289.2. His score from 2001-2003 is 72.5.

So here's how the scores look over the last three years for all the players involved if it's applied to the Chris Paul trade(s):

Chris Paul - 146.6

Lakers/Rockets trade:
Lamar Odom - 85.2
Luis Scola - 62.1
Kevin Martin - 59.6
Goran Dragic - 27.5

Clippers trade:
Eric Gordon - 51.3
Chris Kaman - 48.3
Al-Farouq Aminu - 16.3

So, setting aside the draft picks (because who knows what'll happen with those or how they'll turn out), and even giving Al-Farouq Aminu the benefit of the doubt because he's only a rookie and only has a one year score, it sure looks like the Lakers/Rockets trade would've made far more sense and had more value for the Hornets. Now, I'm sure you could argue that, long-term, the Clippers trade makes sense because those players are young and have more upside. But, it's not like any of the players in the Lakers/Rockets trade were going to be retiring any time soon. Odom will be the soonest, and he's still got a good five years or so left in him.

Alright. That's probably enough from me on that trade. On a semi-related note, you can check out the list of players that switched teams in the offseason here. Some interesting ones that might have slipped under your radar (because I know a lot of them definitely slipped under mine.)

Tracy McGrady signed with Hawks
Richard Hamilton signed with the Bulls
Vince Carter signed with the Mavericks
Andre Miller was traded to the Nuggets from the Blazers
David West signed with the Pacers
Chauncey Billups and Caron Butler (and Chris Paul, of course) all went to the Clippers
Shane Battier signed with the Heat
Stephen Jackson was traded to the Bucks from the Bobcats
Brad Miller was traded to the Timberwolves from the Rockets
Mike Bibby, Tyson Chandler, and Baron Davis all went to the Knicks

I'm most shocked by the McGrady and Carter signings. Not because of where they went, but because I heard absolutely nothing about them, and I check NBA news several times a day. It's possible I was just extremely busy, but you'd still think those players would deserve a mention in a headline or something...

1 comment:

  1. One thing that the peaks say: Larry Bird was better than Magic Johnson at their peaks, but Magic had a better overall career.

    I'm hoping Hamilton to Chicago will put them in the Finals. I don't care, but I HATE to watch Miami play. And whenever I watch them I get a massive stomach ache because I hate them so much. Please Chicago, please.