Wednesday, July 27, 2011

Player Peak Performance Equation (Revised)

I've been playing with this peak performance concept for the last few days and added a few components (which I'll explain later on) and tweaked the values for some of the others a bit. It's still pretty rough, and it started out as a look at Yao Ming's career, so most of the players I've evaluated so far are centers. But I wanted to see how well it translated to other positions, so I threw in the rest of my current top 20 players and a couple players I was curious about, as well. (Also, don't worry, I haven't forgotten about the List of Greatness. I just need to get off my ass and type up the results.) Anyway, here's the quick and dirty results of my revised system:

Michael Jordan (1991-1993) - 294.2
Wilt Chamberlain (1966-1968) - 293.0
Larry Bird (1984-1986) - 285.3
Magic Johnson (1987-1989) - 281.3
Julius Erving (1974-1976) - 279.6*
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (1971-1973) - 271.1
Shaquille O'Neal (2000-2002) - 267.7
Bill Russell (1962-1964) - 260.3
LeBron James (2009-2011) - 256.1
Oscar Robertson (1962-1964) - 246.8
Tim Duncan (2001-2003) - 243.6
Kobe Bryant (2008-2010) - 238.1
David Robinson (1994-1996) - 228.8
Moses Malone (1981-1983) - 228.7
Kevin Garnett (2003-2005) - 224.0
Karl Malone (1997-1999) - 222.8
Hakeem Olajuwon (1993-1995) - 218.2
Jerry West (1970-1972) - 213.8
Dirk Nowitzki (2005-2007) - 210.7
Charles Barkley (1991-1993) - 197.2
Bob McAdoo (1974-1976) - 195.2
George Mikan (1949-1951) - 192.7**
Willis Reed (1969-1971) - 191.4
Dwight Howard (2009-2011) - 189.3
Jason Kidd (2001-2003) - 183.8
Dave Cowens (1974-1976) - 180.6
Patrick Ewing (1992-1994) - 159.4
Bill Walton (1976-1978) - 145.3
Wes Unseld (1969-1971) - 138.6
Ben Wallace (2003-2005) - 137.3
Walt Bellamy (1962-1964) - 133.9
Bob Lanier (1973-1975) - 131.9
Alonzo Mourning (1998-2000) - 128.8
Robert Parish (1982-1984) - 121.4
Amare Stoudemire (2008-2010) - 121.3
Nate Thurmond (1967-1969) - 117.9
Yao Ming (2007-2009) - 117.2
Jack Sikma (1982-1984) - 107.0
Ralph Sampson (1984-1986) - 104.8
Dikembe Mutombo (2000-2002) - 104.3

* - During ABA years
** - pre-MVP and All-Star years


  1. Using my NBA logic (through green glasses) is see this:

    Jordan's '91-93 are, (as they should be) at the top.

    Those are Wilt's top years? Not an outright travesty (like Jordan's last time), but I am a little surprised...

    Bird and Magic are where they should be...and then Dr. J....I guess it is ABA...did you discredit him for that at all?

    I'm surprised Kareem isn't higher (though he lost MVP in 73 to Dave Cowens). He should be (maybe) above Bird/Magic (MAYBE).

    I can see Shaq there definitely. Russell too...But James!! I find that kinda high for him (though....I think my extreme hate for him has something to do with my displeasure, so ignore that..)

    Kobe should be higher...(Not that are any better times for him...only MVP time..) Definitely high than James....Kobe should be behind Oscar (and ahead of James :P).

    I really like what I see. This looks pretty legit. Even though West slipped a bit...

    Also, how close is the early 2000s to now for Kobe? Just curious...

  2. Kobe had one of the more interesting "up and down and up again" fluctuations that I've looked at so far, especially since I've started looking at points, rebounds, and assists per game and factoring those in. He hit a peak in 2001-2003 with 194.3, hit a low in 2004-2006 with 157.6 (where he has some of his best statistical years but got almost no MVP consideration and didn't make the 1st or 2nd team in 2005), and then hit another high in 2008-2010 with 238.1. I haven't found anyone else so far who lost almost 40 points, and then later on gained over 80.

    Kobe's current three year stretch (2009-2011) is 212.2

    And that Dr. J number hasn't been adjusted yet. I haven't decided how to handle peaks that occurred during the ABA yet.

  3. Maybe try ABA counts as 75%.......

    That seems like a good number, though I don't know how it would look....

  4. Taking raw stats into account is a good addition. Wilt is where he should be.
    It also hurts a player like Bill Russell in a way.

    Still much better than the first one. Lebron has failed in the playoffs until now but he still is an absolutely amazing basketball player on both ends of the floor and I'm really not shocked he's that high.As much as we can hate him, he's been the best basketball player since he entered the league.