2012 All-Stars

Well, I was 10 for 10 in predicting the All-Star starters. (My Rookie of the Year prediction, however, is not looking so great... To be fair, I did say I don't pay any attention to college basketball...) Although I really don't take a lot of pride in nailing every one of those picks - I'm pretty sure anyone who pays even a casual amount of attention to the NBA and saw the ballot could've predicted that. And that was really more of an exercise in knowing who was popular than good at basketball (at least this year, those two coincided, thankfully.) Now comes the fun part: figuring out the rest of the rosters.



If you're not familiar with the All-Star process, determining the reserves is the job of the coaches. Each coach picks two guards, two forwards, one center, and two wild cards (and they can't pick their own players.) And that's really the only guidelines given. So deciding what qualifies a player to be an All-Star is entirely subjective. Typically, individual stats are the biggest component, but team success also plays a significant role in determining the number of All-Stars a team gets. Good teams are pretty much guaranteed one All-Star, really good teams often get two (or more), and bad teams aren't going to have more than one (unless more than one are voted in by the fans.)


So, despite Denver and Philadelphia not really having any clear cut "stars," or anyone whose stats really stand out above the rest of the team, we can pretty much pencil in one spot for each team in each conference because of their records. My guess would be that Andre Iguodala and Ty Lawson will get those spots, although I actually think Danilo Gallinari is more deserving of Denver's selection. But I think Lawson will get it because there always seems to be way more deserving forwards than guards.


(This season is also going to be a bit weird with the picks, because the coaches ballots are due Monday, I believe, with the All-Stars being announced Thursday. And teams will have played only about 20-25 games, instead of the typical 40 or so before picking the All-Stars. Oh, well, at least we're still getting an All-Star game this time around.)


And to recap, here are the starters for each conference:
East
G - Derrick Rose, Chicago Bulls
G - Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat
F - Carmelo Anthony, New York Knicks
F - LeBron James, Miami Heat
C - Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic


West
G - Chris Paul, Los Angeles Clippers
G - Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers
F - Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder
F - Blake Griffin, Los Angeles Clippers
C - Andrew Bynum, Los Angeles Lakers


Having said all that, here's a look at the leading contenders and their stats for each conference, with the team record in parentheses:


East Guards:
Ray Allen, Boston Celtics: 17.7 PER, 14.9 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 2.9 APG, 2.2 WS (11-10)
Andre Iguodala, Philadelphia 76ers: 19.2 PER, 13.1 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 5.0 APG, 3.2 WS (16-6)
Kyrie Irving, Cleveland Cavaliers: 22.5 PER, 18.1 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 4.9 APG, 2.0 WS (19-6)
Brandon Jennings, Milwaukee Bucks: 21.0 PER, 20.6 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 5.6 APG, 2.5 WS (10-11)
Joe Johnson, Atlanta Hawks: 18.6 PER, 18.7 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 3.6 APG, 1.9 WS (16-7)
Deron Williams, New Jersey Nets: 19.7 PER, 20.5 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 8.5 APG, 1.4 WS (8-15)


East Forwards:
Ryan Anderson, Orlando Magic: 23.7 PER, 16.5 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 0.7 APG, 3.4 WS (13-9)
Carlos Boozer, Chicago Bulls: 19.8 PER, 14.9 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 1.5 APG, 2.9 WS (19-6)
Chris Bosh, Miami Heat: 20.9 PER, 20.4 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 2.1 APG, 3.2 WS (16-8)
Danny Granger, Indiana Pacers: 18.2 PER, 18.3 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 1.9 APG, 2.1 WS (15-6)
Greg Monroe, Detroit Pistons: 23.5 PER, 15.9 PPG, 9.6 RPG, 2.5 APG, 2.5 WS (4-20)
Paul Pierce, Boston Celtics: 20.9 PER, 17.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 5.5 APG, 2.2 WS (11-10)
Josh Smith, Atlanta Hawks: 18.8 PER, 15.2 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 3.1 APG, 2.0 WS (16-7)
Amare Stoudemire, New York Knicks: 16.8 PER, 18.4 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 1.5 APG, 1.3 WS (8-14)
Anderson Varejao, Cleveland Cavaliers: 18.4 PER, 10.4 PPG, 11.5 RPG, 1.8 APG, 1.9 WS (8-12)


East Centers:
Tyson Chandler, New York Knicks: 19.8 PER, 10.9 PPG, 10.0 RPG, 1.0 APG, 3.8 WS (8-14)
Roy Hibbert, Indiana Pacers: 20.9 PER, 14.0 PPG, 9.8 RPG, 1.8 APG, 2.2 WS (15-6)
JaVale McGee, Washington Wizards: 19.3 PER, 11.4 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 0.5 APG, 1.4 WS (4-18)


My picks:
G - Andre Iguodala, PHI
G - Deron Williams, NJN
F - Chris Bosh, MIA
F - Josh Smith, ATL
C - Roy Hibbert, IND
WC - Paul Pierce, BOS
WC - Brandon Jennings, MIL


West Guards:
Ty Lawson, Denver Nuggets: 18.9 PER, 15.6 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 6.3 APG, 2.1 WS (15-7)
Kevin Martin, Houston Rockets: 19.2 PER, 21.0 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 2.7 APG, 2.5 WS (12-10)
Steve Nash, Phoenix Suns: 23.8 PER, 15.2 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 9.9 APG, 2.2 WS (8-13)
Tony Parker, San Antonio Spurs: 19.9 PER, 17.1 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 7.6 APG, 2.2 WS (15-9)
Ricky Rubio, Minnesota Timberwolves: 17.0 PER, 11.4 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 8.7 APG, 2.0 WS (10-12)
Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder: 22.9 PER, 21.9 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 5.7 APG, 2.2 WS (17-4)


West Forwards:
LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland Trail Blazers: 24.0 PER, 22.8 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 2.7 APG, 3.9 WS (13-10)
Danilo Gallinari, Denver Nuggets: 20.6 PER, 17.5 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 2.7 APG, 3.3 WS (15-7)
Pau Gasol, Los Angeles Lakers: 20.0 PER, 16.3 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 3.0 APG, 3.2 WS (13-9)
Al Jefferson, Utah Jazz: 21.8 PER, 18.5 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 1.9 APG, 1.7 WS (12-9)
David Lee, Golden State Warrors: 19.3 PER, 18.8 PPG, 10.2 RPG, 2.2 APG, 1.8 WS (8-12)
Kevin Love, Minnesota Timberwolves: 25.8 PER, 25.3 PPG, 13.6 RPG, 1.6 APG, 4.5 WS (10-12)
Paul Millsap, Utah Jazz: 24.7 PER, 16.9 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 1.8 APG, 3.0 WS (12-9)
Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks: 17.7 PER, 16.2 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 2.3 APG, 1.8 WS (15-9)


West Centers:
Samuel Dalembert, Houston Rockets: 19.9 PER, 8.6 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 0.5 APG, 2.0 WS (12-10)
Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies: 20.0 PER, 14.7 PPG, 10.6 RPG, 2.8 APG, 3.5 WS (12-10)
Marcin Gortat, Phoenix Suns: 21.7 PER, 15.3 PPG, 10.1 RPG, 0.9 APG, 2.3 WS (8-13)


My picks:
G - Steve Nash, PHO
G - Russell Westbrook, OKC
F - Paul Millsap, UTA
F - LaMarcus Aldridge, POR
C - Kevin Love, MIN
WC - Tony Parker, SAS
WC - Danilo Gallinari, DEN


Love isn't actually a center, but I couldn't find any way to fit Marc Gasol on to the roster at the expense of Love, Millsap, Aldridge, or Gallinari, so I moved one of them over (which the coaches are allowed to do, too.)